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Saturday, January 24, 2009

How to Make Money Online for Beginners

How to Make Money Online for Beginners

Blogger Public Service Ads Fix

Posted: 23 Jan 2009 08:19 AM PST

If you are using Blogger and run Adsense then you may have awoken this morning to find all your Ads are showing Public Service Ads (PSA's). First off don't panic! Second stop sending me emails!...

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Money, Does being an "Authority" Seem Impossible to you?

Hey Money,

If you're sick and tired of hearing people say "you just need
to create good, quality content to become an authority" because
you do and you're STILL not an authority then you need to
read my latest blog post at:

http://getresponse.com/click.html?x=a62a&lc=XvkJ&mc=3&s=i9Yn3&y=m&

In it I explain what it REALLY takes to become an authority
in your niche and I offer my thoughts on the whole "Fake it
until you make it" technique.

I read every comment, so I would love to hear your thoughts
as well! And as always, commentators with 9 or more comments get
live, followed links.

To Your Success,

Josh Spaulding
7217 Winslet Blvd.
Indianapolis
IN 46217
United States
--
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Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Unemployment Mashup – MA vs. RI December 2008

Posted: 23 Jan 2009 07:54 AM CST

Subtitle: Thar She Blows!

As I had noted in my prior posts, historically it has been very unusual for there to be more than a 1.5% difference (either more or less) between the unemployment rates if Massachusetts and Rhode Island.

Recently though, we have seen a historically unusual spread between Rhode Island's high and accelerating rate and Massachusetts' far lower but now quickly rising rate.

In fact, the current 3.1% spread continues to exceed all spreads seen in at least 40 years.

This indicates that either Rhode Island's current rate would need to fall dramatically or the Massachusetts rate would need to increase sharply…. My sense, especially in light of the financial turmoil seen since September, is that Mass will be the one playing catch-up.

Today's MA and RI state unemployment reports show that, in December, the Rhode Island unemployment rate rose significantly again to 10% while the Massachusetts rate jumped dramatically to 6.9%.

In December, Massachusetts experienced the largest year-over-year increase in unemployment since the recessionary environment that followed the tech-led dot-com bust jumping one full percentage point and clearly indicating that Mass has now entered a period of truly explosive unemployment growth.


Reading Rates: MBA Application Survey – January 22 2008

Posted: 22 Jan 2009 10:11 AM CST

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) publishes the results of a weekly applications survey that covers roughly 50 percent of all residential mortgage originations and tracks the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages, 1 year ARMs as well as application volume for both purchase and refinance applications.

The purchase application index has been highlighted as a particularly important data series as it very broadly captures the demand side of residential real estate for both new and existing home purchases.

The latest data is showing that the average rate for a 30 year fixed rate mortgage increased 35 basis points since last week to 5.24% while the purchase application volume declined 2.47% and the refinance application volume slumped 12.44% compared to last week's results.

It's important to note though that although the steady decline in mortgage rates has likely played a significant role in the large increases in refinance application volume, it's also altogether possible that the MBAA has some difficulty in seasonally adjusting their numbers around the November to January periods.

As you can see on the charts below, November through January usually brings some erratic spikes to the volume indices but the cause, at least in some part, is likely the result of troubles seasonally adjusting a noisy weekly series and not an actual spontaneous doubling of refinance activity.

As was noted last year, it's probably sensible to wait until February to draw a final conclusion.

The following chart shows how the principle and interest cost and estimated annual income required to cover the PITI (using the 29% "rule of thumb") on a $400,000 loan has changed since November 2006.

The following chart shows the average interest rate for 30 year and 15 year fixed rate mortgages over the last number of weeks (click for larger version).


The following charts show the Purchase Index, Refinance Index and Market Composite Index since November 2006 (click for larger versions).



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Friday, January 23, 2009

ProBlogger - Latest Posts

ProBlogger - Latest Posts

How to ReDesign a Blog [Part II]

Posted: 22 Jan 2009 06:07 AM PST

This post is the 2nd in a two part series in which Matt Brett shares how he approached redesigning Digital Photography School. Read Part 1 Here.

dps-redesign09-home.jpg

When it came to developing the new Digital Photography School, the real challenge was brought to the table. How was I going to house three blogs under one roof? There were many routes I could take, but I narrowed it down to two pretty early on…

1. Use WordPress MU to host the different blogs under a single install. b5media is in the process of moving all their blogs to the MU platform, so it made sense to be ahead of the curve with DPS already being on it. Tying the blogs together on the homepage and cross-promoting in the sidebar would be easily handled by parsing feeds via SimplePie.

Including all three blogs in archive indexes, search results, etc. would have been made a little more tricky. There are several down-sides to going this route, though, which falls mostly on the administrator’s lap in the end. Adding extra steps to Darren’s daily routine is something I wanted to avoid, so I started weighing pros and cons.

2. The simpler option on all fronts, was to use a standalone install of WordPress and “fake” the different blogs by using a well structured category hierarchy. I knew this meant I was going to be writing a ridiculous amount of conditional statements in the templates, but it would ease the load on the content management end significantly.

Option 2 was the route I decided to take, which proved to be the right one in the end. Aside from producing lists of popular posts in each category (or in this case, for each blog), everything else was relatively easy to do.

Before I could start building out templates, the categories needed to be re-arranged and sorted accordingly under three main ones. “Cameras and Equipment”, along with “Post Production” already existed. So I merely had to create a new category for “Photography Tips and Tutorials”, then place all other categories under it. With that done, I now had the main three categories in place and started separating them on the front end usingconditional tags and custom loops with query_posts.

If This, Do That

Constructing the sidebar was quite a feat. It took a fair amount of planning and testing to ensure the correct content was being displayed for the page you were looking at. The idea, was to show the most popular and recent posts for the blog you’re reading at the top of the sidebar, followed by most recent posts from the other blogs. This became complicated when we started adding additional pages to each faux blog, along with the posts they already contained.

There’s a single template for the sidebar which houses the content for each blog. The conditional tags tell it which content to display depending on what post or page you’re reading. For content relating to the Photography Tips and Tutorials blog, the conditional statement looks like this…

<?php if(in_category(51) && is_single() || is_subcategory(51) && is_single() || is_page(2694) || is_page(2745) || is_page(2753)) { ?>

What that means in plain English, is this…

“If we’re in category 51 and reading a single post, or in a subcategory of 51 and reading a single post, or reading page 2694, or reading page 2745, or reading page 2753, show this content.”

Similar steps are taken for the other blogs, but obviously the category, post, and page IDs change.

Visually Identifying Content

One of the pros of using a single installation of WordPress and “faking” the blogs, was the ability to use the standard archive indexes. Categories, tags, authors, search results, etc. This was all well and good, but we needed a way to distinguish posts being from different blogs. To do this, I coloured the post title and corresponding links to match that of the blog the post belongs to. For example, if you were to look at

Darren’s archive index, you will notice that posts colours change as you scroll down the page. The same goes for search results, which assume a nearly identical layout.

This effect was easily accomplished using a conditional tag which assigned the appropriate class to the post’s container div depending on the category or subcategory it belongs to.

<div class=”post archive<?php if (in_category(51) || is_subcategory(51)) { echo ‘ tips’; } else if (in_category(10) || is_subcategory(10)) { echo ‘ cameras’; } else if (in_category(8) || is_subcategory(8)) { echo ‘ production’; } ?>”>

Presenting the Right Content

Inside each conditional statement is a custom loop which produces the appropriate content for the given area. Again, using the Photography Tips and Tutorials blog as an example, the sidebar list of recent posts i constructed using the following query_posts…

<?php $recent_tips = new WP_Query(’cat=51&showposts=5′); ?> <?php while ($recent_tips->have_posts()) : $recent_tips->the_post(); $more = 0; ?> This one is probably a little easier to decipher - show 5 posts from category 51.

Popular posts from each category was another issue all together. There’s no built-in function in WordPress for popular posts, which is still a little baffling. Over the years, there have been changes to how posts are stored in the database, and popular post plugins never seemed to be able to keep up. Doing a quick search will return several results for such plugins, but hardly any of them work with newer versions of WordPress. Of those that do work, none of them did what I needed - produce a list of popular posts for specified categories. That was until I found the brand new, Recently Popular plugin. At the time I stumbled upon it, the functionality I was after wasn’t quite there. But after leaving a comment with my request, the author released a new version within days adding exactly the functionality I desired. Perfect!

Making Content Management Easy

dps-redesign09-widgets.jpg

When it came to the handling the sidebar content, I wasn’t quite sure how I was going to approach it. In the past, I’ve done such things as creating a series of pages that make up the different bits of sidebar content. Utilizing the page title and content areas, along with some custom fields. But this was by no means an elegant solution. I was after a solution that was easily comprehensible and simple to use. That’s when I turned to widgets.

I’ve created custom widgets before, but their purpose was merely to give my client the ability to rearrange content form the WP-admin. This time, I wanted Darren to be able to edit the content of each widget from within WP-admin as well as being able to rearrange.

A quick search landed me on this tutorial from WooThemes (registration required to read), which was exactly what I needed. In no time, I had created a set of custom DPS widgets with customizable content.

Similarly, a couple new elements have been added to posts that needed an easy-to-use interface. I started demo’ing plugins that allowed for creating user interface elements that tied into custom fields. Unfortunately, most are now geared towards WordPress 2.7, and DPS is running 2.6.5 for the time being. I ended up finding another great tutorial which demonstrated how to create custom write panels in WordPress.

dps-redesign09-writepanel.jpg

Be Dynamic

Using conditional tags and custom loops via query_posts, you can fairly easy create dynamic content which will help set your blog/site apart. A static sidebar with identical content on every page loses its impact quickly, while one that changes and relates to the content of the post you’re reading will not only catch the reader’s eye as it’s constantly changing, but also serves as a more valuable gateway to connect them to other related content.

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How to Make Money Online for Beginners

How to Make Money Online for Beginners

How to Game Alexa

Posted: 22 Jan 2009 09:30 AM PST

Dear Alexa.com, Your website ranking algorithm is so flawed as to be virtually useless as a barometer of online traffic. It is so poor that it is in fact misleading and should require you to add a...

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Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

New Residential Construction Report: December 2008

Posted: 22 Jan 2009 09:55 AM CST

Today's New Residential Construction Report continues to firmly demonstrate the intensity and completeness of the washout conditions that now exist in the nation's housing markets particularly for new residential construction showing tremendous declines on both a peak and year-over-year basis to single family permits both nationally and across every region.

It's important to note that today's results strongly indicate that a new leg in the housing decline was reached between October and December with permit activity falling at the most significant rate seen in this decline.

Single family housing permits, the most leading of indicators, again suggests extensive weakness in future construction activity dropping 49.2% nationally as compared to December 2007 and an astonishing 77.50% since the peak in January 2005.

Moreover, every region showed significant double digit declines to permits with the Northeast declining 43.7%, the Midwest declining 49.1%, the South declining 49.7%, and the West declining a stunning 50.3% on a year-over-year basis.

Keep in mind that these declines are coming on the back of last year's record declines.

To illustrate the extent to which permits and starts have declined, I have created the following charts (click for larger versions) that show the percentage changes of the current values on a year-over-year basis as well as compared to the peak year of 2004.

Declines to single family permits have contracted measurably in terms of monthly YOY declines, and the fact that we are now seeing declines of roughly 30%-50% on the back of 2006 and 2007 declines should provide a an unequivocal indication that the housing markets are by no means stabilizing.




Here are the seasonally adjusted statistics outlined in today's report:

Housing Permits

Nationally

  • Single family housing permits down 49.2% as compared to December 2007.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing down 43.7% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing permits down 49.1% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the South, single family housing permits down 49.7% compared to December 2007.
  • For the West, single family housing permits down 50.3% as compared to December 2007.
Housing Starts

Nationally

  • Single family housing starts down 48.9% as compared to December 2007.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing starts down 37.8% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing starts down 47.5% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the South, single family housing starts down 50.8% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the West, single family housing starts down 50.0% as compared to December 2007.
Housing Completions

Nationally

  • Single family housing completions down 34.9% as compared to December 2007.
Regionally

  • For the Northeast, single family housing completions down 24.524.7% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the Midwest, single family housing completions down 49.7% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the South, single family housing completions down 31.3% as compared to December 2007.
  • For the West, single family housing completions down 35.5% as compared to December 2007.

Keep in mind that this particular report does NOT factor in the cancellations that have been widely reported to be occurring in new construction.

Mid-Cycle Meltdown?: Jobless Claims January 22 2009

Posted: 22 Jan 2009 09:21 AM CST

Today, the Department of Labor released their latest read of Joblessness showing seasonally adjusted "initial" unemployment claims increased 62,000 to 589,000 from last week's revised 527,000 claims while "continued" claims increased 97,000 resulting in an "insured" unemployment rate of 3.4%.

It's important to note that although the last several reports have indicated a slight decrease in the seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims, the non-seasonally adjusted numbers are showing very large increases.

The following chart shows the recent trend in initial non-seasonally adjusted initial jobless claims with the year-over-year percent change acting as a rough equivalent of a seasonally adjustment.

Historically, unemployment claims both "initial" and "continued" (ongoing claims) are a good leading indicator of the unemployment rate and inevitably the overall state of the economy.

I have added a chart to the lineup which shows "population adjusted" continued claims (ratio of unemployment claims to the non-institutional population) and the unemployment rate since 1967.

Adjusting for the general increase in population tames the continued claims spike down a bit but as you can see, the pattern is still indicating that recession has arrived.

The following chart (click for larger version) shows "initial" and "continued" claims, averaged monthly, overlaid with U.S. recessions since 1967 and from 2000.

NOTE: The charts below plot a "monthly" average NOT a 4 week moving average so the latest monthly results should be considered preliminary until the complete monthly results are settled by the fourth week of each following month.

As you can see, acceleration to claims generally precedes recessions.


Also, acceleration and deceleration of unemployment claims has generally preceded comparable movements to the unemployment rate by 3 – 8 months (click for larger version).


In the above charts you can see, especially for the last three post-recession periods, that there has generally been a steep decline in unemployment claims and the unemployment rate followed by a "flattening" period of employment and subsequently followed by even further declines to unemployment as growth accelerated.

This flattening period demarks the "mid-cycle slowdown" where for various reasons growth has generally slowed but then resumed with even stronger growth.

Until late 2007, one could make the case (as Fed chief Ben Bernanke surly did) that we were again experiencing simply a mid-cycle slowdown but now those hopes are long gone.

Adding a little more data shows that in the early 2000s we experienced a period of economic growth unlike the past several post-recession periods.

Look at the following chart (click for larger version) showing "initial" and "continued" unemployment claims, the ratio of non-farm payrolls to non-institutional population and single family building permits since 1967.

The most notable feature of the post-"dot com" recession era that is, unlike other recent post-recession eras, job growth has been very weak, not succeeding to reach trend growth as had minimally accomplished in the past.

Another feature is that housing was apparently buffeted by the response to the last recession, preventing it from fully correcting thus postponing the full and far more severe downturn to today.

It is now completely clear that the potential "mid-cycle" slowdown that appeared to be shaping up in late 2007, had been traded for a less severe downturn in the aftermath of the "dot-com" recession, and now has we have fully entered, instead, a mid-cycle meltdown.

Homebuilder Blues: NAHB/Wells Fargo Home Builder Ratings January 2009

Posted: 21 Jan 2009 02:21 PM CST

Today, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released their latest Housing Market Index (HMI) showing dramatic new lows and continued evidence that the new home market is experiencing a prolonged bout of depression.

Each component of the NAHB housing market index remain WELL BELOW the worst levels ever seen in the over 20 years the data has been being compiled strongly suggesting that the current severe contraction has surpassed all other events seen in the last 22 years and is now firmly in uncharted territory.




Prime Bomb! : Hudson City Bancorp Prime Delinquencies Q4 2008

Posted: 21 Jan 2009 11:37 AM CST

I've been arguing for the better part of two years that although the traditional media and apparently general consensus has focused on subprime and other "toxic" mortgage products as the source for the credit tumult, the historic deterioration would by no means be limited to these "bleeding edge" products.

Before this massive housing and general economic contraction is complete, I expect to see new records set for prime defaults, be they prime-Jumbo ARM loans, prime-Jumbo fixed rate loans, prime-conforming ARM loans or prime-conforming fixed rate loans… we will see historic defaults across the entire spectrum of mortgage products.

Although there is significant debate about the true drivers of mortgage default, most individuals in default cite unemployment as the cause while other key instigators are: risky or insufficient household financial planning (high consumer debt and low/no savings), low-equity stake and housing depreciation, and simply general recession.

The key point to consider though is that while all of these factors have contributed to creating environments of high mortgage default in the past, our current circumstances make these past periods look like walks in the park.

In an effort to prove out this conjecture, I will track, with a quarterly recurring post, the operating performance of one of today's most celebrated "conservative" mortgage portfolio lenders, Hudson City Bancorp (NYSE:HCBK), to see how their borrowers perform over the course of this economic downturn.

Hudson City is now fully recognized as the "poster child" for safe prime-only mortgage lending, stringent underwriting standards and a CEO, Ronald Hermance, whose frequent media appearances usually come with heaping portions of high praise and accolades.

It's important to understand that although Hudson City's average borrower has a reasonable LTV of 61.5%, they are still seeing a precipitous increase in loan defaults.

In fact, currently the average LTV of their non-performing loans (defaulted loans) is 69% so "prime" borrowers with 31% equity at the time of origination are now defaulting in steadily increasing numbers.

The following chart plots Hudson City Bancorp's Non-Performing Loan Ratio (defaulted loans to total loan portfolio) since Q1 2004.

Notice that defaults have been on the rise since Q2 2006 while in Q2 2007 things really started to heat up.


But how does the growth in defaults of the Hudson City Bancorp "prime" portfolio stack up compared to other well know default rates?

The Following charts compare the Hudson City default rate to that of Fannie Mae and the MBAA foreclosure rate.

The top chart compares the normalized default rates since Q1 2004 while the lower two compare the same data since Q1 2007 in order to get a sense of the respective growth over these periods.

It's important to keep in mind that although Hudson City is not experiencing the same ratio of defaults (Fannie Mae and the general MBAA rates are worse) the growth of prime defaults is comparable and, since Q1 2007, has even been substantially higher.



As for Hudson City loan loss provisions, as you can see from the following chart, the capital cushion is dwindling.

The key instigators in this growth of default is likely home price depreciation and unemployment both working together to bear down on "prime" homeowners as is shown by the following charts plotting the year-over-year percent change to the New York area S&P/Case-Shiller home price index against the Hudson City default ratio as well as the unemployment in New York and New Jersey since 2004.


I will continue to update this data in coming quarters in order to see how slumping home values and rising unemployment affect the performance of "prime" borrowers.
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