Paper Money - A US Real Estate Bubble Blog

Crashachusetts Existing Home Sales and Prices: November 2008

Posted: 23 Dec 2008 05:12 AM CST

Today, the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) released their Existing Home Sales Report for November showing that single family home sales completely collapsed dropping 21.8% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales crumpled a staggering 27.3% over the same period firmly indicating that a new and dramatic leg of the housing downturn has commenced.

Further, the single family median home value declined a whopping 14.2% on a year-over-year basis to $283,000 while condo median prices dropped 9.1% to $250,000.

Clearly, the impact of the recent stock market crash and ongoing economic crisis is bearing down on both consumer sentiment and, more fundamentally, credit availability resulting in a significant pullback in spending on homes and other costly purchases.

It's perfectly clear now that home sellers that choose to wait out the "down market" did so in vain as the 2008 selling season draws to a close likely the last opportunity to sell any residential property at anywhere near the prices set in the peak boom years.

With confidence depressed and eroding and sales volumes this low Boston area home prices have nowhere left to go but down.

MAR reports that in November, single family home sales decreased 21.8% as compared to November 2007 with a 13.0% decline in inventory translating to 12.2 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 14.2% while condo sales dropped 27.3% with an 21% decline in inventory translating to 13.2 months of supply and a median selling price decline of 9.1%.

As in months past, be on the lookout for the inflation adjusted charts produced by BostonBubble.com for an even more accurate "real" view of the current home price movement.

November's key MAR statistics:

Single family sales declined 21.8% as compared to November 2007
Single family median selling price declined 14.2% as compared to November 2007
Condo sales declined 27.3% as compared to November 2007
Condo median price declined 9.1% as compared to November 2007
The number of months supply of single family homes stands at 12.2 months.
The number of months supply of condos stands at 13.2 months.
The average "days on market" for single family homes stands at 137 days.
The average "days on market" for condos stands at 149 days.

Collapsedachusetts Existing Home Sales Preview: November 2008

Posted: 23 Dec 2008 04:51 AM CST

Sources inside the Massachusetts Association of Realtors (MAR) report that this tomorrow's monthly existing home sales results will show that November's single family home sales completely collapsed dropping 21.8% on a year-over-year basis while condo sales crumpled a staggering 27.3% over the same period firmly indicating that a new and dramatic leg of the housing downturn has commenced.

Further, the single family median home value declined a whopping 14.2% on a year-over-year basis to $283,000 while condo median prices dropped 9.1% to $250,000.

Clearly, the impact of the recent stock market crash and ongoing economic crisis is bearing down on both consumer sentiment and, more fundamentally, credit availability resulting in a significant pullback in spending on homes and other costly purchases.

It's perfectly clear now that home sellers who choose to wait out the "down market" did so in vain as the 2008 selling season draws to a close likely the last opportunity to sell a residential property at anywhere near the prices set in the peak boom years.

With confidence depressed and eroding, economic conditions weakening, credit standards tightening and sales volumes crumbling, Boston area home prices have nowhere left to go but down.

It's also important to note that the November's single family home sales count was the lowest November count on record since 1991 and at 2339 units sold was 43.63% below the record November peak set in November 1998.

The following charts (click for larger) show the decline in single family home sales since 2005.

Notice that November 2008 registered a home sales count well below the 2007 level as well as indicating that the December's results may very well drop below 2000 units, a significant decline.

U.S. Invasion: U.K. Home Prices November 2008

Posted: 22 Dec 2008 09:53 AM CST

The two most prominent and long running monthly U.K. housing price indices continue to register accelerating year-over-year declines resulting in the largest peak decline seen in at least 17 years.

The "Nationwide" series, which reported data through November, indicated that U.K. home prices declined 13.9% on a year-over-year basis while the "Halifax" series, which reported data through November, indicated that U.K. home prices declined 16.44% on a year-over-year basis.

Both indices are similar to our own S&P/Case-Shiller data series in that they both implement a methodology that seeks to standardize the quality homes included as source data and track the price changes occurring between sales instead of simply tracking the distorted average or median sales price.

The following charts (click for larger) show the price movement since 1991 to each index.
Notice that annual price appreciation peaked in 2003 and continued to weaken consistently until early 2008 when it actually devolved into annual depreciation.